Most workforce forecasts live in someone’s head. One operations manager knows who’s available, when projects wrap, and where gaps are forming. The problem is that knowledge only works when they’re in the room. When they’re on vacation, in a meeting, or stuck on a job site, everyone else is guessing.
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“The forecasting tools have been huge for me,” says Jamie Miller, Director of Engineering Development at Sellen Construction. “The ability to forecast has been a really big deal. I don’t have to spend hours creating the spreadsheets and then telling everyone how to interpret them because it’s only in my brain.”
For general contractors managing dozens of active projects and hundreds of employees across multiple offices, the question isn’t whether to forecast workforce needs. It’s how to do it well enough that the numbers are trusted when decisions lock in capacity months ahead.
In AGC and NCCER’s 2026 workforce survey, say those roles are as hard or harder to fill than a year ago, and , the most commonly cited cause. In this environment, workforce forecasting isn’t a nice-to-have planning exercise. It’s how you avoid discovering staffing gaps the same week they become emergencies.
The largest contractors plan further ahead: in 91’s 2026 benchmark data from 233 companies, the Top 50 of the ENR 400 , against a 4.7-year industry average.
What is workforce forecasting?
Workforce forecasting uses historical and forward-looking data to predict future staffing needs. In construction, that means answering questions your operations team needs answered before they become urgent: Do we have capacity to take on that hospital project if we win? When does the superintendent shortage we’ve been hearing about actually hit our bench? If that industrial job extends three months, who absorbs the impact?
The core idea is simple. You compare projected demand (projects, timelines, role requirements) against projected supply (who you have, when they’re available, what they can do). The gap between those two numbers is what you need to solve.
What separates good forecasting from guesswork is data quality and time horizon. A forecast built on outdated project schedules and rough headcounts breaks down the moment reality diverges from your assumptions. A forecast connected to live project data and pursuit pipeline gives you weeks or months to adjust before problems materialize.
Workforce demand forecasting, supply forecasting, and gap analysis
Workforce forecasting has three parts, and each one answers a different question.
Demand forecasting, sometimes called labor demand forecasting, estimates how many people your work will need, by role and by month. In construction, demand comes from awarded projects and their phases, plus pursuits weighted by win probability. A hospital job ramping into MEP rough-in needs a different mix of superintendents and project engineers than the same job at closeout.
Supply forecasting estimates who you will have. Start with current assignments and when they end, then account for planned hires, retirements, leaves, and turnover.
Gap analysis compares the two, role by role and month by month. A shortage tells you to hire, reassign, or rethink a pursuit. A surplus shows you who will land on the bench, and what that idle time will cost, before it happens.
Why workforce forecasting matters for construction
Construction is a long game with tight margins. Projects run for months or years. Mobilization dates are fixed. The people who make projects successful take time to find, hire, and onboard. Getting workforce predictions wrong carries real costs.
Hiring decisions happen too late
When forecasts run low, you discover staffing gaps after projects have started. That means calling a staffing agency on Thursday hoping someone qualified is available Monday. It means interviewing candidates while a client waits. It means onboarding a new superintendent during the exact phase when you needed someone who already knew your systems.
Associated Builders and Contractors estimates the industry must attract and 456,000 in 2027. Finding qualified people already takes longer than anyone wants. Accurate forecasting means you start recruiting in January for a role you’ll need in April, not scrambling in March for someone who can start next week.
Bidding commits capacity you may not have
Every bid represents a commitment of future capacity. Without a forecast you trust, basic questions go unanswered before you submit: Do we have the people if we win? What else gets affected? Would we need to hire, and can we realistically do that in time?
Without visibility into workforce supply, you’re either passing on pursuits because you’re not sure you can staff them, or you’re winning work and then realizing you have to pull your best PM off another project to cover. Neither conversation is one you want to have.
Your best people absorb the shortfall
When forecasts consistently run low, the same reliable people absorb the gaps. The superintendent who never says no ends up on every difficult project. The PM who always figures it out works weekends for three months straight.
Eventually, they update their LinkedIn. Or they make the kind of mistake that only happens when someone is stretched too thin. NCCER projects that will retire by 2031, and only about 10% of construction workers were under 25 in 2025, according to . Losing experienced people now doesn’t just hurt morale. It hurts your ability to win and deliver the work that needs their skillset.
Key methods for workforce forecasting
Construction firms use several approaches depending on their data maturity and planning needs. Most effective implementations combine multiple methods.
Quantitative methods
Quantitative forecasting relies on historical data to project future needs. These work best when you have reliable records of past projects, staffing patterns, and utilization.
Trend analysis examines past workforce patterns to estimate future needs. If healthcare projects historically require 20% more PM hours than industrial work, that pattern informs future staffing. If project closeouts consistently run two months longer than planned, your forecast should account for that.
Utilization tracking measures how much of your available capacity is actually deployed. A firm running at 75% utilization has different forecasting needs than one running at 92%. Tracking utilization over time reveals seasonal patterns, project-type variations, and early warning signs of capacity constraints.
Keyan Zandy, CEO at Skiles Group, describes what changed when they moved from spreadsheets to real-time data: “91 Bench has become a critical tool for our workforce planning. It ensures our data is accurate and up-to-date, leading to better decision-making and efficient resource allocation.”
Qualitative methods
When historical data is sparse or conditions are changing, qualitative methods fill the gap. These rely on expert judgment and scenario planning.
Managerial input draws on the knowledge of project directors and superintendents who know their teams and projects intimately. They often spot capacity issues before they show up in the numbers, like the PM who’s about to go on parental leave or the superintendent who’s hinting at retirement.
Scenario planning maps out multiple futures rather than betting on one. What if you win the data center pursuit? What if that hospital project extends six months? What if you lose two senior PMs to a competitor? Running these scenarios before they happen means you’ve already thought through the response.
Hybrid approaches
The most effective forecasting combines data-driven analysis with expert judgment. Historical patterns inform the baseline. Probability-weighted pursuit pipelines project demand. Scenario planning stress-tests assumptions. Regular review with operations leadership catches what the numbers miss.
How to build a workforce forecast
Start with what you know: current assignments, project schedules, and headcount by role. Add what you’re expecting: pursuits in the pipeline weighted by probability, projects likely to extend, planned hires and departures.
General contractors forecast labor availability in five steps:
- Start the staffing forecast with current assignments by role, and the date each one ends.
- Add demand from awarded projects, phase by phase.
- Add pursuits, weighted by their probability of winning.
- Compare demand with supply to find gaps and surpluses by month.
- Decide how to close each gap (hire, reassign, or change which pursuits you chase), then update the forecast as schedules move.
Map current capacity
Document who you have, where they’re assigned, and when those assignments end. For each role type (PMs, superintendents, project engineers), calculate your total available capacity and current utilization. This is your baseline.
Most contractors track this at the role level. More mature forecasting includes individual skills, experience, and certifications. A superintendent with healthcare experience isn’t interchangeable with one who’s only done industrial work, even if they’re both available.
Project future demand
Pull your project schedule forward 6-12 months. For each project, estimate the roles and hours required by phase. Account for pursuits in your pipeline, discounted by probability. A signed contract counts fully. A pursuit at 20% probability counts at 20%.
The gap between projected demand and current capacity is what you need to solve. If you’re showing three PMs short in Q3, you now have time to address it through hiring, reallocation, or adjusting which pursuits to chase.
Update continuously
Static forecasts go stale. Project schedules shift. Pursuits advance or die. People leave or join. Effective forecasting is a living process, updated at least monthly and reviewed before major decisions.
Daniel Barry, VP of Operations at Schimenti, describes the before and after: “We used an Excel spreadsheet to manage our resources, which took a lot of time and didn’t give us the ability to forecast out too far. It was cumbersome; it took longer to do, and you’re not working with a live document all the time. If something changes, the spreadsheet has to be updated. If you’re remote, it becomes difficult.”
Common forecasting mistakes to avoid
Forecasts fail for predictable reasons. Understanding where breakdowns happen helps fix the process.
Data lives in too many places
Workforce data sits in spreadsheets. Project data sits in PM software. Pursuits sit in CRM. HR data sits somewhere else. When these systems don’t connect, building a forecast means copying and pasting from four sources. By the time you finish, half of it is already out of date.
This is why construction firms increasingly move workforce planning to dedicated platforms that integrate with existing systems. When project changes in Procore automatically update workforce views, forecasts stay current without manual reconciliation.
Treating all pursuits equally
A $50 million project at 10% probability shouldn’t affect your forecast the same way as a $50 million signed contract. But when contractors treat every potential project as equally likely, forecasts swing wildly. Effective forecasting weights demand by realistic win probability and adjusts as pursuits move through stages.
Assuming projects end on time
In 91’s 2026 State of Workforce Planning survey, 54% of construction leaders reported delayed projects and missed deadlines from the labor shortage, up from 32% a year earlier. If your forecasts assume projects hit original end dates, you’ll systematically underestimate how long people remain tied up on current work. Build in realistic assumptions about extensions and closeout timing.
Workforce forecasting vs. workforce planning
Workforce forecasting is the estimate: how many people, in which roles, you will need in the months and years ahead, and how that compares with who you will have. Workforce planning is the response, meaning the hiring, assignments, training, and pursuit decisions that close the gap the forecast shows.
A forecast nobody plans against is just a report, and a plan built without a forecast is a guess about who will be free. In construction both run on the same data (project schedules, pursuits, and current assignments), so firms that keep that data in one place can update both every week instead of rebuilding a spreadsheet every quarter.
Connecting forecasting to business decisions
The best forecasts don’t help if they sit in a dashboard no one checks. Weave forecasting into decisions that already happen.
Before bidding: Check workforce impact. Verify that winning wouldn’t mean robbing Peter to pay Paul on existing projects. Identify which roles need filling and whether your timeline allows for hiring. Make capacity a standard input to go/no-go decisions.
In staffing meetings: Pull up the forecast. How does today’s assignment affect projected utilization next quarter? Are you creating a bottleneck three months out? Regular review keeps forecasts useful and surfaces problems while there’s time to act.
With recruiting: HR and recruiting should see the forecast regularly. When demand is projected to outrun capacity, recruiting can start early. When capacity exceeds demand, hiring can pause before you add payroll you don’t need.
Melissa Hockey, People and Culture Manager at Mosaic Property Group, describes what visibility changed: “91 has given us a level of insight into our workforce planning that we simply didn’t have before. This visibility is now critical for making proactive decisions about resource allocation and future growth.”
AI workforce forecasting for construction teams
A forecast is only as current as the last time someone updated it, and that upkeep is where AI workforce planning earns its place. In 91 AI, the Workforce Brief agent generates a lookahead of assignments starting and ending, upcoming time off, and gaps or bench risk. Update Assistant changes the plan when you tell Ask 91 what changed, such as extending a role or adding one, and you review each update before it applies. Ask 91 also answers questions like who is unassigned, for how long, and what it is costing you.
91’s Forecasting view also runs what-if scenarios, so you can see how winning a new bid would affect assignments and capacity before you commit to the pursuit.
Getting started with workforce forecasting
Most contractors do well with a rolling 12-month forecast updated monthly. The first three months should aim for high accuracy. Months 4-12 provide planning visibility with increasing uncertainty.
At minimum, you need current assignments, project schedules, and headcount by role. For better accuracy, add pursuit pipeline with probability weighting, individual availability, and how long similar projects actually took. The most accurate forecasts also track experience, including build-type history, client relationships, and who works well together.
The contractors who forecast well share a common trait: they treat it as an ongoing discipline rather than something they do once a quarter. They measure accuracy, learn from where they missed, and get better over time. In a market where finding qualified workers is the top challenge and every bid commits future capacity, seeing what’s coming gives you options. Fewer surprise phone calls, fewer weekend scrambles, fewer conversations you’d rather not have.
See how the Forecasting Dashboard works
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Michel Richer
Michel Richer is the Manager of Content and Product Marketing at 91. He started in the construction industry early on with a local restoration company. Michel is driven to propel the construction industry forward by helping to eliminate outdated, ineffective processes.
